From punts to proof: George Mason adjunct helped solve the NFL’s “4th-down problem”

Nathan Kahl — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 14:13:37 +0000

From punts to proof: George Mason adjunct helped solve the NFL’s “4th-down problem” Nathan Kahl Fri, 12/13/2024 - 09:13

4th Down Bot

The New York Times' Fourth Down Bot is based on Burke's models

Read Burke's reflection

George Mason University alumnus Brian Burke’s career path, from fighter pilot to ESPN data analyst, demonstrates that whether it’s a 4th-and-inches decision or a career pivot into analytics, calculated risks can pay off.

Brian Burke. Photo by Evan Cantwell/Office of University Branding

In 2009, the NFL’s two best teams—the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts—faced off in a pivotal showdown. Late in the game, acclaimed football genius and Patriots coach Bill Belichick attempted to get a first down on a fourth-down play deep in Pats’ territory. Converting would win the game for the Patriots, but a failure would give the ball to the Colts in prime field position. When the Colts stopped Tom Brady’s completion inches short of the first-down marker, Peyton Manning took the field and easily won the game for the Colts.

At the time, many considered the decision a huge blunder, given the conservative, risk-averse culture among NFL coaches, who usually choose the “safe” option of punting the ball on fourth down. But today’s coaches are more likely to be aggressive in these situations, supported by an emerging focus on analytics and a column written at the time by Burke, now a Systems Engineering and Operations Research (SEOR) adjunct faculty member.

He turned a hobby of analyzing sports data into something of a big deal, founding Advanced Football Analytics in 2006, where he published his findings, in addition to consulting with NFL teams; the New York Times would sometimes print his writing and analysis. A column on Belichick’s decision turned him into an overnight stats celebrity.

“I did the math and estimated that the decision to go for it increased the Patriots’ chance to win the game by 9 percentage points. I wrote up a short article for the Times saying it was the right thing to do, and didn't realize it was going to be controversial,” said Burke, who completed a master's degree in operations research at George Mason in 2015. “The Times cross posted to my website and when I woke up the next morning my phone was blowing up.”

The data shows that NFL coaches should be more aggressive on the 4th down than they frequently are. Photo by Wikimedia

In 2015 ESPN recruited him to be a sports data scientist, which he does from his home in Reston, Virginia. “I’ve got a charmed existence, for sure,” he laughed.

His career started far from campus or a football field; Burke fulfilled a childhood dream when after high school he became an F-18 Naval fighter pilot. He earned a bachelor’s in aerospace engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy and after leaving the service worked for a defense contractor.

But he couldn’t help marrying his love of sports with an analytical mind. “I was talking with a coworker one day of this notion that ‘defense wins championships’ in football; people say it, but is it true?” Burke said. “You could download of data from ESPN.com in the mid 2000’s and I had a regression analysis software and decided to put in the numbers, build some models, and see what came out.”

This love of data and desire to launch his second career led him to wander into the SEOR offices in the Nguyen Engineering building one day in 2014, with no appointment. Late faculty member Andy Loerch, who also served in the military, asked if he could help Burke. The two bonded.

“From that moment on, I thought, ‘This is a great place for me,’” Burke said.

Loerch inspired Burke to enroll at George Mason and became his mentor. When he finished his program, Loerch and Ariela Sofer, then department chair, encouraged him to create a class on sports analytics as an adjunct.

Burke loves the role. “I really enjoy it and enjoy sharing what I know. You don’t know something unless you can teach it, so it forces me to nail down the basics and examine assumptions and go back to first principles.” He said he appreciates the opportunity to connect with fellow SEOR faculty members. “The creative friction when we’re together gives me great ideas.”

Topics

Big Data

data analytics

Sports Analytics

Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Adjunct Faculty

Alumni

Charting new courses: Larrie Ferreiro's naval expertise sets sail at George Mason

Nathan Kahl — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 14:07:16 +0000

Charting new courses: Larrie Ferreiro's naval expertise sets sail at George Mason Nathan Kahl Mon, 09/30/2024 - 10:07

Other works by Larrie Ferreiro

Ships and Science: The Birth of Naval Architecture in the Scientific Revolution, 1600-1800, published in 2006
Measure of the Earth: The Enlightenment Expedition That Reshaped Our World, published in 2011
Bridging the Seas: The Rise of Naval Architecture in the Industrial Age, 1800-2000, published in 2020
Churchill's American Arsenal: The Partnership Behind the Innovations that Won World War Two, published in 2022

Like many George Mason adjunct faculty, Larrie Ferreiro had a successful career before entering academe. He worked in both France and England, where he earned his PhD in History of Engineering, Science, and Technology Studies from Imperial College London and became a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society.

He appreciates that he can apply his background to teaching. “What I enjoy about Mason is what I’ll call ‘opening the aperture.’ That’s part of the culture and ethos here,” he said. “As an adjunct, I was able to propose—and have accepted—the idea of a minor called STEM in Society. I developed curricula around this idea that you can look at science, engineering, and technology through a social and historical lens, and vice-versa.”

Ferreiro has authored several books, one of which, Brothers at Arms: American Independence and the Men of France and Spain Who Saved It, published in 2016, was a Pulitzer Prize Finalist in History and was named Journal of the American Revolution Book of the Year.

Ferreiro's book was the culmination of several years of naval history research. Image provided

Ferreiro noticed his kids’ textbooks had no information about the American colonies’ collaboration with France, and Spain during the American Revolution. “I had looked at the knowledge sharing between France and Spain, and they were trying to create a combined navy to defeat the British and the Americans were relying on that.” He found very little written about this aid and said, “That was when I realized I had a book.”

His combined knowledge of warship engineering and Industrial Revolution-era navies is nearly unmatched. Ferreiro is a naval architect and designed warships for more than 30 years, after being hand-picked to train overseas as a British naval constructor. He also spent time working in France in the early 90’s. “The Cold War ended in 1991 and the U.S. Navy was going to downsize,” he said. “My question was, ‘What does a future U.S. Navy look like that’s smaller?’ The French Navy was the only navy with every single capability the U.S. Navy had but at a smaller scale.” While working there, he found himself researching various aspects of ship design from the late 1700s.

For the book, he recalled, “I dragged my family up and down the East Coast, going to battlefields from Vermont to New York to Savannah. I had already researched the European archives and Brothers in Arms was a culmination of all of that. I took a different view of how the Americans asked for help from these two nations. The Americans wrote a document that was intended as a call to arms. We call it the Declaration of Independence, but it was specifically to tell the kings of France and Spain: If you come in on our side you will fight alongside a sovereign ally.”

When he learned he was named a Pulitzer finalist, he said, “The first words out of my wife’s mouth when I told her were, ‘I told you so.’ This is one of the many times I’ve heard this and as usual, she was right.”

Topics

Adjunct Faculty

Naval research